Oregon taxpayers could see record $ 1.9 billion refund next year

Oregon State Capitol Building, May 18, 2021. Oregon’s unique tax law returns money to taxpayers whenever personal income tax revenues exceed at least 2% initial forecast over a two-year budget cycle.

Kristyna Wentz-Graff / OPB

Oregon officials now expect the state to send a massive $ 1.9 billion tax refund next year, after an increase in tax revenue at the end of the tax season of This year.

If projections hold, the refund – which takes the form of credits on 2021 tax returns filed next year – would be the biggest boost Oregon has ever seen. The state’s single tax law returns money to taxpayers whenever personal income tax revenue exceeds initial forecast by at least 2% during a two-year budget cycle.

The new projection, presented at a joint meeting of senators and state officials on Wednesday morning, was the most striking change economists have made since their last jaw-dropping forecast in May. In that report, they predicted the state would see a boost of $ 1.4 billion.

But economists were clear at the time that this forecast involved risks. Due to tax deadlines that were pushed back due to COVID-19, the scope of Oregon’s tax returns was unclear in May.

“We were just starting tax season at that point,” state economist Mark McMullen told lawmakers. “We had not seen the great wave of collections.

Under the expected boost, the median income taxpayer would receive a credit of $ 420 on state taxes this year. The average taxpayer, with an adjusted gross income of about $ 67,500, would receive $ 850. Since the kicker is awarded as a percentage of income taxes paid, the richest 20% of earners should receive much more: between $ 1,600 and $ 16,880.

The state last hit a record high in 2019, the last time the refund was triggered, when more than $ 1.5 billion was returned to taxpayers.

Economists have also revised their income outlook slightly upwards for the current biennial budget cycle, as well as for the following two cycles.

This is a developing story. Watch for updates.

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